Thirty-day fed funds futures prices are widely considered a reliable indicator of U.S. monetary policy changes. CME’s FedWatch tool tracks the target rates based on fed funds futures contract prices.
A reading above 50 percent indicates the market’s guess for the next rate hike.
Before the announcement, the market estimated that the federal funds rate would be higher than its current level across all months tracked by CME.
After the announcement, odds increased the most for the second half of 2017, in months tracked by CME:
- February: 6 percent, up from 5 percent prior to the 2 p.m. ET announcement