Is crude oil becoming old news? A particular currency seems to be suggesting so, says one strategist.
On Tuesday, Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management noted that the correlation between the Canadian dollar and crude oil has been weakening, a sign that oil’s influence over markets may be coming to an end.
Since oil accounts for a major part of Canada’s exports, the country’s currency tends to trade in tandem with the price of crude oil. Earlier this year, Schlossberg declared that everything from stocks to currencies were taking cues from crude oil’s wild swings.
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However, now the market’s obsession with oil is tiring, he said.
“For the past month and a half, it’s been a one-way road trip between oil and the Canadian dollar,” Schlossberg said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “Maybe now the markets are decoupling with this correlation that was almost one to one with oil, and starting to look for other ideas.”
On Wednesday, crude oil surged as much as 6 percent even as reported inventories increased and U.S. stocks fell. The commodity has fallen 5 percent this month as the Canadian dollar has risen 1 percent against the U.S. dollar.
“Unless oil starts to make fresh lows, it could be yesterday’s story as far as capital markets go,” Schlossberg said.
According to Phillip Streible of RJO Futures, the relative strength in the currency, sometimes referred to as the “loonie,” is more attributable to the rising price of gold, as another significant commodity export in Canada.
Gold has gained more than 7 percent this year in the midst of a volatile stock market, prompting some investors to declare that the flight to safety trade is back on. Other factors noted in gold’s rise include a weakening U.S. dollar and low interest rates around the world.
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“If you look at gold prices, they’ve come up quite a bit, and I think that that provided some stabilization in the Canadian dollar despite oil’s decline,” Streible said Tuesday on “Trading Nation.”