Netflix shares could nearly double in the next three to four years, Mark Mahaney, analyst at RBC Capital markets, told CNBC on Tuesday.
“In terms of long-term valuation, the way we think about the stock is we think this is a company that can generate $10 [annual earnings per share] in long-term earnings power,” Mahaney said in an interview with CNBC’s “Tech Bet.” “If that’s true, we think that’s a $200 stock somewhere in the next three to four years.”
Netflix releases fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday, and investors should look for the streaming service’s number of subscribers, Mahaney added. Netflix traded at $109 per share as of early Tuesday afternoon.
“If they’re able to come in line with their guidance — and they’re able to meet their 3 million plus international (subscriber) number — then the story will be intact,” Mahaney said. “And the stock should go up higher from that.”
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Mahaney has a $140 price target on Netflix.
Mahaney said the single most important thing to focus on in 2016 is Netflix’s international expansion.
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“This is a major Asia launch year,” he said. “That’s going to determine whether the stock by the end of this year is up 20 percent or down 20 percent.”
He notes that streaming rivals including Hulu and Amazon haven’t really impacted Netflix yet, but those threats are real and could always change.
Disclosure: Mahaney does not own shares of Netflix. Hulu is a joint venture owned by 21st Century Fox’s Fox Broadcasting, Walt Disney’s ABC, and Comcast’s NBC Universal, the parent-company of CNBC.
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