Despite this week’s market turmoil around the world, one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls maintains the end of the correction may be near.
On CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday, Tony Dwyer, who has an impressive 2,350 price target on the S&P 500, said he is watching four key indicators that prove the market may have found a bottom this week.
“We tend to wait for the market to get oversold enough and as of this week we got into that category,” said the chief U.S. market strategist for Canaccord Genuity. “Our key four indicators will close this week in an extreme enough oversold condition that suggests any additional weakness from current levels should be made up very quickly.”
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First, Dwyer looks at something called a stochastic indicator — a technical measure that compares the current price of an asset to the highest and lowest price it’s traded at over the last 14 weeks. He noted that when the indicator drops below 30, it shows an abundance of selling in the market. “It’s now at 24, so barring any kind of incredible ramp it’s going to close the week there,” he said.
Next, Dwyer noted that the percentage of stocks trading above their 10-day moving average has diminished in the last few sessions, which is a sign that “you have a low that’s pretty imminent.” The S&P 500 hit a year-to-date intraday low of 1,878.93 on Thursday morning.
Third, he advised investors to pay close attention to the VIX, commonly referred to as the market’s fear gauge. “You have the VIX above 20 [since the start of the year],” he said. Super spikes in the VIX tend to correspond with sell-offs in the market, but as history has shown, when the VIX trades above 20 stocks tend to rally in the 30, 60 and 90 days to follow.
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Last, Dwyer pointed to the Investors Intelligence percentage of bulls, which he said has fallen to 28.6 percent. “When you look back at the last 25 years the only two times that you can find when the percent of bulls drops below 25 was the 2008 low and June 1994 low when the Fed started raising rates,” he said. “Both of those times kicked off some pretty significant rallies and we’re hoping the same holds true [this time].”
Despite the rally that had the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq up around 2 percent Thursday, the three major indexes were still flirting with correction territory, down a respective 9, 10 and 11 percent from their all-time highs. And in premarket trading Friday, the three indexes were in sell-off mode.