Cramer: The real reason Boeing lowered guidance

Jim Cramer was really puzzled about the aerospace group this week. He decided to make it his mission to figure out if this group is peaking, because there is some serious money to be made or lost when it comes to the sector.

The aerospace stocks have been among the strongest out there. The space was suddenly called into question on Wednesday when Boeingreported a decent quarter, but then gave very weak guidance. Immediately, investors worried that the aerospace sector could be peaking, and Boeing’s stock plunged almost 9 percent in a single session.

Even though Boeing got the most attention, there was also other bits of news that came out that had a much different takeaway. United Technologies issued a brighter outlook for its aerospace business. Additionally, Honeywell reported on Friday and reported similarly positive guidance, including in its aerospace division.

With these conflicting signals, Cramer boiled it down to two possible theories. Maybe the aerospace industry is peaking, and Boeing is just seeing it before the others.

737 Max Hero Boeing

Meghan Reeder | CNBC
737 Max Hero Boeing

“It wouldn’t totally shock me if Boeing wanted to lower expectations in order to make it easier for the new guy to deliver.”-Jim Cramer

“Or maybe, and this was my initial reaction to the weakness on Boeing, we are not seeing a peak in the industry at all,” the “Mad Money” host said.

Instead, Cramer suspects that what is really happening is that Boeing’s major competitor Airbus is getting a boost from the weak euro. With the Fed raising interest rates, the dollar has become stronger. Thus, a plane priced in euros from Airbus would be much cheaper than a plane priced in dollars from Boeing.

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The real issue, according to Cramer, is that Airbus is simply taking business from Boeing. That theory strengthened when United Technologies and Honeywell reported.

The aerospace business accounts for roughly 40 percent of Honeywell’s sales. Honeywell builds the instruments inside the cockpit for almost every plan manufacturer in the world. It was when Honeywell reported that Cramer started to really doubt the idea that the aerospace business is peaking.

Additionally, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg recently took over as CEO of the company.

“It wouldn’t totally shock me if Boeing wanted to lower expectations in order to make it easier for the new guy to deliver,” Cramer said.

In fact, Cramer would be willing to recommend Boeing as a buy if the Federal Reserve provides a signal that it will take its plans for four quick rate hikes off the table.

“Even if Boeing is having a hard time because Airbus has an unfair currency advantage, it’s very clear that the aerospace industry in general is doing just fine,” Cramer said.

Cramer also added that both United Technologies and Honeywell are worth owning right now, and maybe Boeing would be, too, if the dollar stops gaining strength.

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