It turns out investors probably should heed those national park signs warning hikers to “Beware of Bears.”
In a 1966 Newsweek article, the eminent economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that the stock market had predicted nine of the past five recessions. It’s a remark that is often repeated to deride the powers of the stock market to predict the economy.
CNBC went back to see if Samuelson was right and, if so, does he remain right? As the gauge of the market, we looked at all the bear markets of the postwar era, using data compiled by the financial research firm Bespoke, where stocks fell 20 percent, stayed down for longer than a month and where there was no 20 percent rally.